How the H-1B lottery odds are calculated
The H-1B is the main US work visa for specialty occupations, but demand vastly exceeds the annual cap of 65,000 regular visas plus 20,000 reserved for holders of a US master's degree or higher. When registrations exceed those numbers, USCIS holds a random lottery. Your odds are simply the number of available selections divided by the size of the pool you are competing in, adjusted for the advanced-degree exemption. This estimator applies that logic to the registration total you enter, so you can see a realistic probability instead of guessing.
The two-stage selection
Selection happens in two rounds. USCIS first runs the regular cap of 65,000 against the entire pool, which includes everyone regardless of degree. It then runs a second selection of 20,000 from the remaining registrations that hold a US advanced degree. Because advanced-degree holders are eligible in both rounds, they enjoy a higher combined chance than someone with only a bachelor's degree. The estimator models both rounds so advanced-degree candidates see their improved odds, while everyone else sees the regular-cap probability.
Beneficiary-centric registration
A key rule is that selection is beneficiary-centric: each individual is entered exactly once, no matter how many employers register them. This levelled the playing field by removing the old advantage of being submitted by multiple companies. It means the honest way to improve your position is the advanced-degree route, not multiple registrations, and it makes the total registration count the main driver of everyone's odds.
How to improve your overall chances
You cannot influence a random draw, but you can improve your position over time and prepare alternatives. Earning a qualifying US master's degree adds the second selection round and meaningfully raises your odds. Lining up an employer that will re-register you in future cycles keeps you in the running year after year. Just as importantly, build a backup plan now: cap-exempt employers such as universities, nonprofit research organisations and government research bodies can sponsor H-1Bs outside the lottery at any time, and categories like the O-1 for extraordinary ability, the L-1 intracompany transfer, or country-specific visas may suit your situation. Discuss timing and options with your employer and an immigration attorney well before the spring registration window.
The figures here are an estimate based on the registration total you provide and published cap numbers. Actual odds depend on the final count USCIS receives and any policy changes, so treat the result as guidance and confirm current rules on the official USCIS pages.